Description

Introduction (a few paragraphs that describe the purpose of the paper)

Literature Review (a written summary of findings from your outside references)

Model Estimation Results (discussion of the GRETL results for the base model the revised GDP model)

Conclusions (summary of what you learned about the impact of COVID on GDP growth in second-quarter 2020)

References (list of citations)

Tables and Figures (GRETL output for the models discussed in the estimation results section)

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1

PROJECT 1

GRETL Model Summary Statistics, using the observations 1 33

Variable

Mean

Median

Minimum

Maximum

Q2GDP

-9.9025

-9.0007

-18.039

-3.1539

BB

106.89

103.99

60.382

178.90

BUSWEB

76.743

78.500

41.451

95.636

SOCEXP

20.471

22.267

7.5550

31.152

CHILD

33.448

32.100

0.30000

59.700

TOUR

7.2829

7.5000

2.5000

15.000

SERVICE

70.626

70.536

61.413

80.780

Variable

Std. Dev.

C.V.

Skewness

Ex. kurtosis

Q2GDP

4.0701

0.41102

-0.28756

-0.65700

BB

27.323

0.25563

0.73831

0.088763

BUSWEB

12.546

0.16348

-0.82220

0.46026

SOCEXP

5.4625

0.26684

-0.26460

-0.47588

CHILD

17.335

0.51826

-0.21462

-0.75564

2

TOUR

2.8071

0.38543

0.67240

0.42690

SERVICE

5.7604

0.081563

0.083943

-1.1178

Variable

5% Perc.

95% Perc.

IQ range

Missing obs.

Q2GDP

-17.927

-3.1865

6.1989

0

BB

69.474

164.07

36.404

0

BUSWEB

48.494

94.435

14.419

0

SOCEXP

10.601

30.096

7.5300

0

CHILD

1.0000

59.420

25.800

0

TOUR

3.3400

13.964

4.1500

0

SERVICE

62.076

80.071

9.2172

0

QUESTIONS

a) What did the average (mean) decline in Q2 GDP for the countries in our data set?

-9.9025

b) What was the largest decline (minimum) in Q2 GDP?

-18.039

c) What was the smallest decline (maximum) in Q2 GDP?

-3.1539

3

PROJECT 3 REVISED MODEL

The US Real GDP Growth

1. Please use the Ordinary Least Squares tool in GRETL to estimate an expanded

regression model from the revised data.

2. Please answer the following questions about the estimated version of the revised

model:

a) Based on the R2 statistic for the expanded model, what share of the variation in

Q2GDP is explained by this regression model?

4

The r*2 which can be converted into percentage can be found to be 81.5949,

indicating that the exogenous variables that are determining the effect of the covid-19

case have been covered, with the other variable or outlier variable covering the

18.4051.

b) Which coefficients in the revised model are significantly different from zero (i.e.,

have p-values less than 0.10

All of the coefficients are significant

c) Please explain how we should interpret the estimated values of the

LOCKDOWN and WORSTCASE coefficients?

The question asks for the interpretation of these coefficient values. For example, the

LOCKDOWN value indicates that we expect an early lockdown to reduce GDP

growth by 1.5%

d) Based on the estimated value of the FIRSTCASE coefficient, what is the

expected change in second-quarter GDP per capita if a country was able to delay

the occurrence of its first COVID case by 10 days?

The coefficient represents the impact of a one-day delay in the first case. To estimate

the impact of a 10-day delay, multiply the coefficient by 10

3. Please provide a copy of your actual-predicted plot. Based on this plot, how well

does the model fit the data?

5

The residuals appear to behave randomly which suggests that the model fits the data

well. For example, the open circle 4 equals to -2.405 and for the solid circles 4 equals

to -3.260.

4.

6

The BB, SERVICES, and WORSTWE CASE coefficients in the updated model continue to have

a p-value less than 0.05. On the other hand, CHILD, LOCKDOWN, FIRSTCASE, BUSWEB,

SOCEXP, TOUR which indicates effect of the pandemic on GDP determination was higher

because p-value is more than 0.05. The R squared increased from 81.59% to 82.07%.

7

References

Rosser Jr., B. J., & Rosser, M. V. (2017). Corporate Economics in a Transforming World

Economy (Third ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

StataCorp, L. P. (2007). Stata data analysis and statistical Software. Special Edition Release, 10,

733.

Kohler, U., & Kreuter, F. (2005). Data analysis using Stata. Stata press.

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Impacts of Covid19 on Real GDP

Model Summary Statistics

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