Florida State University Comparative Economics Paper

Description

Introduction (a few paragraphs that describe the purpose of the paper)
Literature Review (a written summary of findings from your outside references)
Model Estimation Results (discussion of the GRETL results for the base model the revised GDP model)
Conclusions (summary of what you learned about the impact of COVID on GDP growth in second-quarter 2020)
References (list of citations)
Tables and Figures (GRETL output for the models discussed in the estimation results section)

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1
PROJECT 1
GRETL Model Summary Statistics, using the observations 1 – 33
Variable
Mean
Median
Minimum
Maximum
Q2GDP
-9.9025
-9.0007
-18.039
-3.1539
BB
106.89
103.99
60.382
178.90
BUSWEB
76.743
78.500
41.451
95.636
SOCEXP
20.471
22.267
7.5550
31.152
CHILD
33.448
32.100
0.30000
59.700
TOUR
7.2829
7.5000
2.5000
15.000
SERVICE
70.626
70.536
61.413
80.780
Variable
Std. Dev.
C.V.
Skewness
Ex. kurtosis
Q2GDP
4.0701
0.41102
-0.28756
-0.65700
BB
27.323
0.25563
0.73831
0.088763
BUSWEB
12.546
0.16348
-0.82220
0.46026
SOCEXP
5.4625
0.26684
-0.26460
-0.47588
CHILD
17.335
0.51826
-0.21462
-0.75564
2
TOUR
2.8071
0.38543
0.67240
0.42690
SERVICE
5.7604
0.081563
0.083943
-1.1178
Variable
5% Perc.
95% Perc.
IQ range
Missing obs.
Q2GDP
-17.927
-3.1865
6.1989
0
BB
69.474
164.07
36.404
0
BUSWEB
48.494
94.435
14.419
0
SOCEXP
10.601
30.096
7.5300
0
CHILD
1.0000
59.420
25.800
0
TOUR
3.3400
13.964
4.1500
0
SERVICE
62.076
80.071
9.2172
0
QUESTIONS
a) What did the average (mean) decline in Q2 GDP for the countries in our data set?
-9.9025
b) What was the largest decline (minimum) in Q2 GDP?
-18.039
c) What was the smallest decline (maximum) in Q2 GDP?
-3.1539
3
PROJECT 3 REVISED MODEL
The US Real GDP Growth
1. Please use the Ordinary Least Squares tool in GRETL to estimate an expanded
regression model from the revised data.
2. Please answer the following questions about the estimated version of the revised
model:
a) Based on the R2 statistic for the expanded model, what share of the variation in
Q2GDP is explained by this regression model?
4
The r*2 which can be converted into percentage can be found to be 81.5949,
indicating that the exogenous variables that are determining the effect of the covid-19
case have been covered, with the other variable or outlier variable covering the
18.4051.
b) Which coefficients in the revised model are significantly different from zero (i.e.,
have p-values less than 0.10
All of the coefficients are significant
c) Please explain how we should interpret the estimated values of the
LOCKDOWN and WORSTCASE coefficients?
The question asks for the interpretation of these coefficient values. For example, the
LOCKDOWN value indicates that we expect an early lockdown to reduce GDP
growth by 1.5%
d) Based on the estimated value of the FIRSTCASE coefficient, what is the
expected change in second-quarter GDP per capita if a country was able to delay
the occurrence of its first COVID case by 10 days?
The coefficient represents the impact of a one-day delay in the first case. To estimate
the impact of a 10-day delay, multiply the coefficient by 10
3. Please provide a copy of your actual-predicted plot. Based on this plot, how well
does the model fit the data?
5
The residuals appear to behave randomly which suggests that the model fits the data
well. For example, the open circle 4 equals to -2.405 and for the solid circles 4 equals
to -3.260.
4.
6
The BB, SERVICES, and WORSTWE CASE coefficients in the updated model continue to have
a p-value less than 0.05. On the other hand, CHILD, LOCKDOWN, FIRSTCASE, BUSWEB,
SOCEXP, TOUR which indicates effect of the pandemic on GDP determination was higher
because p-value is more than 0.05. The R squared increased from 81.59% to 82.07%.
7
References
Rosser Jr., B. J., & Rosser, M. V. (2017). Corporate Economics in a Transforming World
Economy (Third ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
StataCorp, L. P. (2007). Stata data analysis and statistical Software. Special Edition Release, 10,
733.
Kohler, U., & Kreuter, F. (2005). Data analysis using Stata. Stata press.

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Impacts of Covid19 on Real GDP

Model Summary Statistics

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