CUNY BMCC Economics Essay

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Please read the attached economic case materials and the associated rubric so to write one page of each topic (total 2 topic) with monetary policy recommendations based on the case data.GDP Components – CONSUMPTIONHow consumption /household spending is evolving?How is spending on consumer durables evolving?Consumer confidence and the impact on it from the current Unemployment rateGDP Components – INVESTMENTFixed business investment /Software/Productivity Investment (if available or inferred)Housing Sector/New Housing Starts (if available or inferred)Investment Lag related to Consumption/ FedFundsRate / OilPrice data

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Table 1: Nominal GDP, Seasonally Anually Adjusted Rate
Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
GDP – Billions of Dollars
510.3
522.7
525.0
528.6
542.6
541.1
545.6
540.2
545.0
555.5
567.7
580.6
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 2: Components of Gross Domestic Product
[Billions of chained (2012) dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross domestic product
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Q1
3,122
1,924
341
-36
94
129
1,067
Year 1
Q2
Q3
3,192
3,195
1,953
1,974
367
343
-43
-35
93
102
135
137
1,081
1,090
Q4
3,204
1,976
355
-36
97
133
1,081
Q1
3,276
1,995
390
-29
109
138
1,062
Year 2
Q2
Q3
3,258
3,274
2,020
2,012
354
353
-27
-20
112
115
139
135
1,074
1,101
Q4
3,232
2,015
314
-13
115
129
1,108
Q1
3,254
2,014
322
-14
115
128
1,125
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
2,643
2,564
2,541
2,498
2,422
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
-704
-756
-759
-772
-798
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
2,865
2,909
2,971
3,028
3,119
Year 3
Q2
Q3
3,309
3,373
2,044
2,054
345
371
-21
-24
109
114
130
138
1,128
1,152
Q4
3,439
2,095
378
-26
116
142
1,177
Table 3: Real GDP
Source:
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Real Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR,
Bil.Chn.2012$)
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
3,122
3,192
3,195
3,204
3,276
3,258
3,274
3,232
3,254
3,309
3,373
3,439
Real Potential Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)
Real Gross Domestic Product
(SAAR, %Change)
Real Potential Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR, %Change)
Congressional Budget Office
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Congressional Budget Office
3,125
3,154
3,183
3,214
3,245
3,277
3,309
3,342
3,375
3,408
3,442
3,476
1.92%
2.26%
0.07%
0.29%
2.25%
-0.54%
0.49%
-1.28%
0.68%
1.70%
1.92%
1.96%
0.90%
0.90%
0.90%
0.90%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
Tables 4.1-4.3:
Unemployment
Data
Source:
Year and Month
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Official Unemployment Rate:
16 Years + (SA, %)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.4
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.6
6.6
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.0
6.6
6.7
6.5
Labor Force Participation Rate:
16 Years + (SA, %)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent
59.3
59.0
59.3
59.4
59.2
59.2
59.4
59.2
59.3
59.4
59.1
59.5
59.1
59.1
58.5
59.5
59.5
59.7
59.5
59.5
59.7
59.4
59.8
59.7
59.6
59.6
59.7
59.3
59.4
59.7
59.3
59.3
59.0
59.1
Employment-Population Ratio: 16
Years + (SA, %)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent
55.7
55.5
56.0
56.3
56.2
56.3
56.3
56.1
56.0
56.1
55.7
56.3
56.0
56.2
55.4
56.4
56.4
56.5
56.2
56.1
56.4
55.8
56.1
55.7
55.7
55.5
55.6
55.2
55.2
55.6
55.2
55.3
55.0
55.3
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs, Wkly Avg, Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Thousands
403
316
255
247
209
221
267
241
213
272
357
358
386
301
301
293
264
272
339
306
274
332
396
494
539
478
370
365
296
278
355
269
255
275
Table 5: Consumer Sentiment Index
Source:
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment, Index 1966_Q1=100, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Date*
Percent
Y1Q2
95.3
Y1Q4
93.8
Y2Q1
100.0
Y2Q2
93.3
Y2Q3
97.2
Y2Q4
90.1
Y3Q1
91.6
Y3Q2
92.5
Y3Q3
99.2
Y3Q4
93.0
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 6: Personal
Consumption
Expenditures
Source:
Year & Month
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Real Headline PCE: % Change, Monthly, Real Core PCE (less Food & Energy): %
SAAR
Change, Monthly, SAAR
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
1.0
0.9
-0.4
1.2
0.4
-0.3
0.6
1.0
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.6
-2.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.5
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.6
0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.6
0.6
1.6
1.7
-0.3
0.9
0.4
-0.3
0.8
1.4
-1.1
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.7
1.0
2.1
-2.3
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
-0.9
-1.2
0.1
0.5
1.5
-0.4
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
Table 7: Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S.
Headline CPI: % Change, Monthly, SA
City Average, Percent Change,
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
Source:
Year & Month
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
Core CPI (less Food & Energy): % Change,
Monthly, SA
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
Table 8: Housing Starts Total: New Privately Owned
Housing Units Started, Thousands of Units, Monthly,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source:
Census Bureau
Year and Month
Thousands of Units
Y1M1
1,657
Y1M2
1,667
Y1M3
1,620
Y1M4
1,590
Y1M5
1,498
Y1M6
1,503
Y1M7
1,547
Y1M8
1,430
Y1M9
1,540
Y1M10
1,355
Y1M11
1,416
Y1M12
1,601
Y2M1
1,460
Y2M2
1,503
Y2M3
1,109
Y2M4
1,289
Y2M5
1,271
Y2M6
1,247
Y2M7
1,197
Y2M8
1,344
Y2M9
1,097
Y2M10
1,246
Y2M11
1,246
Y2M12
1,063
Y3M1
1,183
Y3M2
1,226
Y3M3
1,312
Y3M4
1,166
Y3M5
1,228
Y3M6
1,382
Y3M7
1,335
Y3M8
1,312
Y3M9
1,429
Y3M10
1,415
Table 9: Manufacturing Data, SA, Quarterly
Source:
Federal Reserve
Board
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
Capacity Utilization:
Manufacturing
Percent
81.37
84.56
80.50
80.08
84.47
81.32
78.90
75.85
73.83
76.35
78.41
80.64
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 10: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Date*
Percent, Quarterly, Avg., Not Seasonally Adjusted
Y1Q1
2.58
Y1Q2
3.08
Y1Q3
3.57
Y1Q4
3.99
Y2Q1
3.93
Y2Q2
3.70
Y2Q3
2.94
Y2Q4
2.30
Y3Q1
1.99
Y3Q2
1.73
Y3Q3
1.68
Y3Q4
2.40
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 1: Nominal GDP, Seasonally Anually Adjusted Rate
Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
GDP – Billions of Dollars
510.3
522.7
525.0
528.6
542.6
541.1
545.6
540.2
545.0
555.5
567.7
580.6
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 2: Components of Gross Domestic Product
[Billions of chained (2012) dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross domestic product
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Q1
3,122
1,924
341
-36
94
129
1,067
Year 1
Q3
Q2
3,192
3,195
1,953
1,974
343
367
-43
-35
93
102
135
137
1,081
1,090
Q4
3,204
1,976
355
-36
97
133
1,081
Q1
3,276
1,995
390
-29
109
138
1,062
Year 2
Q2
Q3
3,258
3,274
2,020
2,012
354
353
-27
-20
112
115
139
135
1,074
1,101
Q4
3,232
2,015
314
-13
115
129
1,108
Q1
3,254
2,014
322
-14
115
128
1,125
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
2,643
2,564
2,541
2,498
2,422
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
-704
-756
-759
-772
-798
Y3Q4
Y4Q1
Y4Q2
Y4Q3
Y4Q4
2,865
2,909
2,971
3,028
3,119
Year 3
Q2
Q3
3,373
3,309
2,044
2,054
371
345
-21
-24
109
114
130
138
1,128
1,152
Q4
3,439
2,095
378
-26
116
142
1,177
Table 3: Real GDP
Source:
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Real Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR,
Bil.Chn.2012$)
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
3,122
3,192
3,195
3,204
3,276
3,258
3,274
3,232
3,254
3,309
3,373
3,439
Real Potential Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)
Real Gross Domestic Product
(SAAR, %Change)
Real Potential Gross Domestic
Product (SAAR, %Change)
Congressional Budget Office
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Congressional Budget Office
3,125
3,154
3,183
3,214
3,245
3,277
3,309
3,342
3,375
3,408
3,442
3,476
1.92%
2.26%
0.07%
0.29%
2.25%
-0.54%
0.49%
-1.28%
0.68%
1.70%
1.92%
1.96%
0.90%
0.90%
0.90%
0.90%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
Tables 4.1-4.3:
Unemployment
Data
Source:
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
Official Unemployment Rate: Labor Force Participation Rate: Employment-Population Ratio: 16 State Programs, Wkly Avg, Not Seasonally
16 Years + (SA, %)
Adjusted
16 Years + (SA, %)
Years + (SA, %)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Year and Month
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Percent
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.4
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.6
6.6
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.0
6.6
6.7
6.5
Percent
59.3
59.0
59.3
59.4
59.2
59.2
59.4
59.2
59.3
59.4
59.1
59.5
59.1
59.1
58.5
59.5
59.5
59.7
59.5
59.5
59.7
59.4
59.8
59.7
59.6
59.6
59.7
59.3
59.4
59.7
59.3
59.3
59.0
59.1
Percent
55.7
55.5
56.0
56.3
56.2
56.3
56.3
56.1
56.0
56.1
55.7
56.3
56.0
56.2
55.4
56.4
56.4
56.5
56.2
56.1
56.4
55.8
56.1
55.7
55.7
55.5
55.6
55.2
55.2
55.6
55.2
55.3
55.0
55.3
Thousands
403
316
255
247
209
221
267
241
213
272
357
358
386
301
301
293
264
272
339
306
274
332
396
494
539
478
370
365
296
278
355
269
255
275
Table 5: Consumer Sentiment Index
Source:
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment, Index 1966_Q1=100, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Date*
Y1Q2
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
Percent
95.3
93.8
100.0
93.3
97.2
90.1
91.6
92.5
99.2
93.0
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 6: Personal
Consumption
Expenditures
Source:
Real Headline PCE: % Change, Monthly, Real Core PCE (less Food & Energy): %
SAAR
Change, Monthly, SAAR
Year & Month
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Percent
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.0
0.9
-0.4
1.2
0.4
-0.3
0.6
1.0
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.6
-2.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.5
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.6
0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.6
0.6
Percent
1.6
1.7
-0.3
0.9
0.4
-0.3
0.8
1.4
-1.1
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.7
1.0
2.1
-2.3
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
-0.9
-1.2
0.1
0.5
1.5
-0.4
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
Table 7: Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S.
Headline CPI: % Change, Monthly, SA
City Average, Percent Change,
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
Source:
Year & Month
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
Core CPI (less Food & Energy): % Change,
Monthly, SA
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
Table 8: Housing Starts Total: New Privately Owned
Housing Units Started, Thousands of Units, Monthly,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source:
Census Bureau
Year and Month
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Thousands of Units
1,657
1,667
1,620
1,590
1,498
1,503
1,547
1,430
1,540
1,355
1,416
1,601
1,460
1,503
1,109
1,289
1,271
1,247
1,197
1,344
1,097
1,246
1,246
1,063
1,183
1,226
1,312
1,166
1,228
1,382
1,335
1,312
1,429
1,415
Table 9: Manufacturing Data, SA, Quarterly
Source:
Federal Reserve
Board
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
Capacity Utilization:
Manufacturing
Percent
81.37
84.56
80.50
80.08
84.47
81.32
78.90
75.85
73.83
76.35
78.41
80.64
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
Table 10: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the FRS
Date*
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
Percent, Quarterly, Avg., Not Seasonally Adjusted
2.58
3.08
3.57
3.99
3.93
3.70
2.94
2.30
1.99
1.73
1.68
2.40
*Q1=Jan; Q2=April; Q3=July; Q4=Oct
C h ar t 1 : N o mi n al G DP
S o u rce : Bu re a u o f Eco n o m i c A n a l ysi s
600
Billions of Dollars
580
580.6
567.7
560
555.5
540
542.6
525.0
520
541.1
545.6
540.2
545.0
528.6
522.7
510.3
500
480
460
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
Chart 2: Components of GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4,000
3,500
3,000
1,101
1,108
1,125
1,128
1,152
1,177
1,081
1,090
1,081
343
355
390
354
353
314
322
345
371
378
341
367
1,924
1,953
1,974
1,976
1,995
2,020
2,012
2,015
2,014
2,044
2,054
2,095
-36
-43
-35
-36
-29
-27
-20
-13
-14
-21
-24
-26
1,067
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars
1,074
1,062
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year 1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year 2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Year 3
-500
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Net exports of goods and services
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Q4
Chart 3: Real and Potential Gross Domestic Product
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Congressional Budget Office
3,500
3,442
3,408
3,400
3,375
3,342
3,373
3,309
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars
3,309
3,276
3,300
3,277
3,274
3,254
3,192
3,232
3,195
3,200
3,204
3,245
3,258
3,214
3,122
3,154
3,100
3,183
3,125
3,000
2,900
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Real Gross Domestic Product (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Congressional Budget Office
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Chart 4.1: Official Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.2
6.6 6.7 6.5
5.4
5.3 5.2
4.8
5.2 5.1
5.4 5.5
5.6 5.5
4
3
2
1
Y3M10
Y3M9
Y3M8
Y3M7
Y3M6
Y3M4
Y3M3
Y3M1
Y2M12
Y2M11
Y2M10
Y2M9
Y2M7
Y2M5
Y2M4
Y2M3
Y2M2
Y2M1
Y1M12
Y1M11
Y1M10
Y1M9
Y1M7
Y1M5
Y1M3
Y1M2
0
Y1M1
Percent
5
5.7 5.8
Y2M8
5.0 5.1
5.5
6.9 7.0
6.1 6.1
Y2M6
5.2 5.1
Y1M8
5.6
Y1M6
6.0 5.9
Y1M4
6
6.6 6.6
7.1
Y3M5
7
6.9 6.9 7.0
Y3M2
8
Chart 4.2: Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment to Population Ratio
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
61
60
59.3
59.3
59.4
59.0
59
59.2 59.2
59.4
59.2
59.3
59.5 59.5
59.5
59.4
59.1
59.8
59.7
59.4
59.7
59.6 59.6
59.7
59.7
59.3
59.4
59.0
58.5
56.3
56.0
55.7
55.5
56.2
56.3 56.3
56.1
56.0
56.4 56.4
56.3
56.1
56.0
55.7
56.5
56.2
56.4
56.1
56.1
55.8
56.2
55.7 55.7
55.5
55.6
55.6
55.2 55.2
54
59.1
59.1
57
55
59.3 59.3
55.2
55.3
55.4
Labor Force Participation Rate: 16 Years + (SA, %)
55.3
55.0
Employment-Population Ratio: 16 Years + (SA, %)
53
52
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Percent
59.5 59.5
59.1
58
56
59.7
Chart 4.3: Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
600
539
494
500
478
403
400
396
386
365
357 358
300
316
272
267
301
301
209
200
221
241
213
370
306
293
269
274
264
247
255
332
272
275
296
278
255
100
0
Y1M1
Y1M2
Y1M3
Y1M4
Y1M5
Y1M6
Y1M7
Y1M8
Y1M9
Y1M10
Y1M11
Y1M12
Y2M1
Y2M2
Y2M3
Y2M4
Y2M5
Y2M6
Y2M7
Y2M8
Y2M9
Y2M10
Y2M11
Y2M12
Y3M1
Y3M2
Y3M3
Y3M4
Y3M5
Y3M6
Y3M7
Y3M8
Y3M9
Y3M10
Thousands
339
355
Chart 5: Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
102.0
100.0
100.0
99.2
98.0
97.2
96.0
95.3
Index
94.0
92.5
93.8
93.0
93.3
92.0
91.6
90.0
90.1
88.0
86.0
84.0
Y1Q2
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4
CHART 6: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
SOURCE: BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2.5
2
1.6
2.1
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
1.0
0.6 0.6
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.4
0
-0.5
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.6 0.2
0.4
0.2
0.6 0.6
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.7
-1.1
-1
0.6
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-1.2
-1.2
-1.5
-2.3
-2
-2.0
Real Headline PCE: % Change, Monthly, SAAR Bureau of Economic Analysis
-2.5
Real Core PCE (less Food & Energy): % Change, Monthly, SAAR Bureau of Economic Analysis
Y3M10
Y3M9
Y3M8
Y3M7
Y3M6
Y3M5
Y3M4
Y3M3
Y3M2
Y3M1
Y2M11
Y2M10
Y2M9
Y2M8
Y2M7
Y2M6
Y2M5
Y2M4
Y2M3
Y2M2
Y2M1
Y1M12
Y1M11
Y1M10
Y1M9
Y1M8
Y1M7
Y1M6
Y1M5
Y1M4
Y1M3
Y1M2
-3
Y2M12
PERCENT CHANGE
0.5
1.4
1.2
1.2
1
1.5
1.4
CHART 7: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
0.8
Headline CPI: % Change, Monthly, SA Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent
Core CPI (less Food & Energy): % Change, Monthly, SA Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
PERCENT CHANGE
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1 0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.0 0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Chart 8: Housing Starts
Source: Census Bureau
2,000
1,657
1,667
1,590
1,600
1,620
1,498
1,547
1,601
1,540
1,503
1,416
1,503
1,460
1,430
1,289
1,355
1,200
1,344
1,247
1,246
1,246
Thousands
1,197
1,109
800
400
0
1,097
1,312
1,226
1,183
1,271
1,382
1,335
1,228
1,166
1,063
1,429
1,312
1,415
C h ar t 9 : Man u fac t u r i n g C ap ac i t y Ut i l i zat i o n
S o u rce : Fe d e ra l Re se r ve Bo a rd
86
84.56
84.47
84
82
PERCENT
80
78
81.37
81.32
80.50
80.64
80.08
78.90
78.41
76
76.35
75.85
74
73.83
72
70
68
Chart 10: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
4.50
3.99
4.00
3.93
3.70
3.57
3.50
3.08
2.94
Percent
3.00
2.58
2.50
2.40
2.30
1.99
2.00
1.73
1.68
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Y1Q1
Y1Q2
Y1Q3
Y1Q4
Y2Q1
Y2Q2
Y2Q3
Y2Q4
Y3Q1
Y3Q2
Y3Q3
Y3Q4

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